Showing posts with label Transactions. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Transactions. Show all posts

Sunday, 8 November 2015

KL: Buy back INARI's son

A good horse will not turn back to eat the old grass (direct translation from a Chinese proverb 好马不吃回头草). This is true for a good horse. However, I am certainly not one of the good one.

INARI, my old buddy which I have sold Oct 2014 during the big drop -- a pain when looking back. Ridiculously, I targeted RM 2.70 (before the second right issue ex) at the time of buying. I went up to as high as RM 3.30 (before ex) and I didn't sell. It wasn't until the big drop that I finally sold at a price well below my target price. This happened before, and history has repeated itself.

Anyway,INARI price soared with volume recently:

INARI

This is a very nice pattern, so I follow these steps that I used to do:

1. Price soared with high volume
2. If got adjustment, wait for it and adjustment must come with low volume
3. Buy in after a few trading days


As simple as that.

I intended to buy INARI-CW. But looking at INARI-CW, only CI and CJ have some "attractive features". However, I ended up buying INARI-WB as CI and CJ cannot play:

1.CI banker's is a scrooge, queuing only 500 lot for each price bid! **

**Conspiracy theory: I know conspiracy theory is a cliché nowadays, but could this imply that the banker has no confidence to earn money from this CW, hence the low volume queue?

2. CJ itself has "acceptable" volume for each price bid, but nobody trades it, hence no volume. CW with no volume -- cannot play.

INARI, I am back by buying your son!

Thursday, 24 September 2015

KL: A mistake on SIGN

I bought in SIGN in early July based on a friend's recommendation. During August (when KLCI was dropping everyday, literally), I did learn from the past to take profit on 7 Aug @ RM3.00 -- the second day of big drop. This is an exceptional decision -- the selling price is within 10% from the high of RM 3.27.

I was very happy at first. But then seeing the stock continue to go down, I tried to "catch low", hoping that the stock would rebound soon. This is a common error people make: catching low. Another reason is the thought of betting on the August financial report. I was thinking that by benefiting from the depreciation of MYR, export counters should be doing well.

I bought back on 12 Aug (it was just 3 trading days after I sold!), wishing to earn for a second round. Although suffering from unrealized losses straight after buying, I hold on to the optimistic side of a beautiful fiscal report -- another common error people make: take chances. The financial report was released on 27 Aug and it was bad. SIGN dropped 15% on the next trading day. Not only I "vomit out" all profit in the first round of trading, I incurred a further loss.


SIGNATURE INTERNATIONAL BHD


Buying back just after 3 days of selling is really unnecessary.  This decision has cost me an arm and a leg this time. I took one step forward (took profit), but then I took another step backward (bought back) to the origin. Perhaps  I should never look back to stock after selling.

Sunday, 6 September 2015

KL: PRIVA price soared after selling

The unwillingness to sell a share is the worry that the share price will soar right after selling.

I sold the rebound-catching PRIVA on 2-9-2015, and the next day it shot up 30% with volume. This is probably the first time I have such a farcical experience: my previous target of 50% was completely forgotten at the time of selling due to fear. The rebound-catching timing is not bad, but the selling time is bad, resulting in a loss.  This is certainly not a good feeling, but blaming and regretting is futile because at the time of selling, I must have already used my discretion to come to the decision. I do not have the prescience for the movement of a stock, so even if the price soars after selling, there is really nothing I could do, let alone that the worry is purely based on a (negative) projection into the future.

Becoming conscious of the unconscious worry marks another advancement in my investment journey (on the mental level), that selling is nothing more than a transaction. Hopefully next time I have less mental obstacles when taking profit, which is crucial especially when trading call warrant.


Wednesday, 19 August 2015

KL: PRIVA rebound catching

Catching a rebound requires more than bravery. It requires the correct timing, the confidence to buy, the calmness to hold and the resolution to cut loss should the stock keep falling down.

I queued PRIVA @ 0.195 early in the morning, when the queue was 0.200 best buy and 0.205 best sell. Soon after the market opened, I saw KLCI "waterfall-ed" again and immediately wanted to cancel my order. But before I clicked on the "cancel order" button, the transaction was matched.


PRIVA rebound

Soon after that, the best sell became 0.195 in no time.

Soon after that, the last done price was 0.190.

Soon after that, the best sell become 0.190 and the best buy was 0.185.

This implies an immediately loss and is not a good feeling at all. It was tough to hold the counter in that situation, especially when KLCI has been plunging continuously. My confidence is certainly shaken right after buying. I decided to observe first and closed my trading platform. Until now, so far so good.

While PRIVA is not a 5-star stock (my basic requirement to catch a rebound), being a technology stock and a price of < 0.200 makes me irresistible. I target a return of at least 50% in short time.

Saturday, 11 July 2015

2015 Q2 Review

The total transaction in this quarter was very high, probably the highest in my history.

My portfolio reached a pinnacle on 23rd Apr, which have declined since then as KLCI has been dropping continuously. Indulging myself in insatiable greed, I saw many counters that I hold turned from green to red, from earning to losing. AWC and PRIVA are only a fraction of examples. I experience the highs and lows of the rise and fall in my portfolio, feeling completely numb about the change in numbers.

The transaction involving call warrant in this quarter has far exceeded the total call warrant transaction for the past 4.5 years. After all these years, I have finally felt comfortable to trade call warrant. The experience is: taking profit on call warrant is way too important. You can't hang on to call warrant like the way I used to do with a mother share. When you see a reverse trend, it is time to sell regardless of the return.

Going to the end of June, the Greece drama and the possibility of a downgrade in Malaysia credit rating have proven that my own insight into the market was right. This marks a great advance in my investment life: to be able to insist on my own view and not being swayed by the others. Yet I know that I still have a long way to go, for having zero experience in a real bearish market.

The investment return will remain undisclosed since now.

Friday, 8 May 2015

KLSE: INARI-CA, a "successful" trade

Following the recent failed short term trade, maybe I should also write some "successful" transactions.

If AWC made myself stumbling, then INARI-CA could at least offer me some condolences. It was the "secret weapon" that I bet on for the recovery of my capital since Oct 2014. Never happen before that I will buy call warrant "in quantity", after realizing how much opportunity I have lost since then.

At first I was really reluctant to sell -- want to earn more. But the imminent expiry date (the last trading day was 30 Apr 2015) makes me worried and decided to sell a few weeks before expiry. In the end INARI-CA expired at RM 0.090. I cannot imagine the "what if"? Glad that I have overcome my own "mental blockage" to sell a share.

Perhaps SHH can give me another comfort, that I am actually learning to sell a share at good timing. It is trading at about RM 1.20 at the moment. Again, what if?

What if it soars after selling? Let it be. Maybe I buy another share that has better return?
What if it drops after selling? Then no worries.

Friday, 3 April 2015

2015 Q1 Review

The total transaction for this quarter is very low, which is a good thing. I just hold on to whatever in my portfolio. My capital has started to "recover" to the level of Oct 2014, which I couldn't be more grateful for.

Sometimes I would think that if I hold on to my FBMKLCI-HB that I bought in Oct 2014 until Dec 2014, I would have earned a lot. I sold at a loss after 1 week. Inexplicably, in that period of time, even one day seems to be forever, for which I long for my return to "come back" instantly.

Anyway, I thought that SHH may have second round, but then I read a news about HEVEA eyeing SHH resources published on 30 Mar 2015 in the morning. "Coincidently", this is the day where SHH gap up to open high at RM 1.56. Even more "coincident" is that the share started to move one week prior to the news. The old market adage has it that "Buy on rumours Sell on news". While I certainly don't have any rumours beforehand, it now seems that my selling time is just right for "sell on news". And because this round of shoot up is "obviously" due to the news, I wouldn't hope for a second wave. So no more SHH for me. What a pity, I still plan to earn for one more round.

The investment return will remain undisclosed.

Monday, 30 March 2015

KLSE: Sell SHH

I started collecting SHH since May 2014. This process went on until September. I once said that SHH is another INGRESS. This is why I can hold it "tightly" even during the "adjustment" (some people called it small bear) in Oct and Dec 2014, because I have confidence in SHH.

The waiting has paid off. All returns comes in 2 weeks time. But the money has stuck there for 10 months. Maybe I shouldn't ask for more. Considering the whole period, the return is still stellar.

I actually wanted to wait for "open flip" (i.e. 100% return). But the price shot up too abruptly, causing the candle to be out of the upper BB band. This always followed by a pull back, with no exception to any stock.

SHH


Today SHH opened high at 1.56, reached a high of 1.58 and closed at 1.44. A clear adjustment sign is coming. I didn't watch the market at the opening, but soon after the market opened I realized that maybe I should have a look at SHH. It opened high, and I know that I should sell it no matter how. I sold all my shares between 1.50-1.53 in the morning, a decision that looks to be correct at least from now.

This does not mean that SHH will stop like that. A typical trend would be adjusting for a few days (which nobody knows), and then continue its uptrend. Depending on the situation, perhaps I will buy back at a lower price.

I am delighted to have made the right decision. The main reason is, of course, a pull back is inevitable and imminent. The second reason is, I've found another share to buy.

Sunday, 21 September 2014

KLSE: Sell INSAS

Finally, I admit my "mistake" for keeping INSAS. I hold this share for too long, longing for a higher return. The fact is that, I could have had the same return 6 months ago, when it soared from 0.90+ to 1.20+. But I chose to stay on. My capital just can't stay the same all the time. I decided to sell eventually.  



Usually a stock with "big fish" in play will move within 3 months after the first round, but INSAS is way too "exceptional". In 6 months, people can already buy other share and gain satisfactory return from the trading. So I have to "change horse" (i.e. switch stock), to look for other opportunities.

Regardless, I still think this is an undervalued stock. I understand that releasing its values and potentials is just a matter of time. But it is just too long for me to wait. And no dividend some more! Earn so much then no give dividend, how can?!

I've had enough with you. Bye.

Saturday, 26 July 2014

KLSE: Thanks PNE, Bye PNE

My first entry price is 0.295. At that time, the relevance for me to hold a share which is not making profit is the cash/share > share price:

Total share: 65.7 M
Total cash (@ 30/9/2013): 24.2 M
Cash/share = RM 0.37

RM 0.295/share to buy a share that has a cash/share of RM 0.37, too good to be true, isn't it?

When the share went up to RM 0.60, I am still holding it. I convinced myself that the relevance now is the NTA price of RM 0.94. That the share is traded at a price well lower than its NTA/share. So I still holding that.

When it went up to RM 1.10, I keep holding. This is where all relevance turns into irrelevance, all rationality becomes irrationality. There is no fundamentals to support this share at this price. Yet I even think of waiting the share to flip twice (i.e. 300% return). But when volume comes, I know that it is time to sell, regardless of what's going to happen next.

Looking back, the price movements come in 4 rounds. I am surprise that I can wait until the 4th round. I might have still kept holding it,  had it not been the candle on 2nd July 2014, where the volume is just too scary for me:

PNEPCB


I felt a sense of freedom after selling. And I know that is a correct decision to have some cash on hand.

P/S:
This company has some direct business transactions recently, and it involved a large amount of shares:

26 June 2014: 5M shares dispose through direct business transaction.
1 July 2014:  14M of shares  dispose through direct business transaction. (gee, this is substantial considering that the total share is only 65.7M) 

And recently many patterns come out, change in boardroom, change in director's interest etc: PNEPCB announcement 

The price for direct deal is RM 1.10, which is higher than the current market price. I do not know what is the intention. And there is no point dwelling into the reason, cause you will never know what is going on.

The important thing is: I am free from it. That's it.

Saturday, 28 June 2014

KLSE: the so-called one-lot-transaction (一阳指)

In share trading it is not uncommon to see a 1-lot transaction being made. It creates interests because in some cases, a 1-lot match would result in a 10% brokerage fee of the total amount traded, or even much higher.

Yesterday, I have this experience:


SHH transaction

Match amount = RM 94. Brokerage about RM 10+. Brokerage fee = 10%+. This mean that I must have a 10% gain in this share just to make it break even. 

Looking at the queue, the best sell price is 0.985.


SHH queue


The seller intention is apparently obvious: hoping the buyer to increase the buy price to buy at seller's price. As a retail investor, some people would do that because even if they buy more, the brokerage charge remains relatively the same for a trade amount of up to RM 1k. So why not buy more? But then you have to pay a higher price, which is the pitfall set by the seller.

But I am not going to do so. The first reason is because I already have some shares on hand, so that I can sell them all together. Secondly, I am not comfortable to buy at this seller's price, so not falling into the trap. Kind of self-comfort, isn't it?

Tuesday, 29 April 2014

KLSE: Top up CHHB

It has been some time since I posted my last transaction, but it doesn't mean that I did not buy or sell in these periods.

Today I queue RM 1.55 for CHHB, a share by guazi in Investalks.


CHHB transaction



Why would I buy this share? 

The chart is beautiful, is very much like INGRESS lasty year:  Why would I buy INGRESS? Price up within short time, then price consolidation with low volume, to "wash out" contra and uncertain shareholders.




Why is it 1.55?  

Well, first of all I am very "prudent" in buying something, including stocks. I wouldn't pay full price for something - a typical Malaysian style, and will always bargain: 

kurang sikit boleh tak? (Malay)

eh kah kiam oh? (Hokkien)

不能再便宜了meh? (Mandarin) 

can you give a better price? (English) 

So I will feel reluctant to even queuing for RM 1.56.

Secondly, 1.55 is the lowest price since 21/4/2014. Because at that day there was a slight movement in the stock with volume. I believe this is a relatively safe entry price.  

Target price - No target price. If volume come and I find a better chance, then I will change.  

Saturday, 11 January 2014

My share doubled its price, i.e. "kai fan"

Last month I just wrote something about a share that I've hold for the longest time.

Yesterday, I mentioned that I really look forward to my first "kai fan" share, i.e. 100% return, in 2013 review.

Note: "kai fan" = 开番 in mandarin
                = "open slip" by direct translation (meaningless)
                = doubled share price in English term

To my surprise, the share that I look forward to be the first share that doubled its price is not the first share that doubled its price in my portfolio. I am still very excited to see the first 100% in my portfolio, finally, after 3 years of stock investment.

pnepcb double share price


I've hold this for 13 months. Not too bad after seeing this return. But the process is not that easy, especially if you look at the market everyday. This stock can be completely deadly for weeks and months, with only small volume traded.

The weightage of this share was 25% of my total capital by the time I bought in. Although I would think of buying not enough (greed has no bounds), but even if I put in a large portion of my capital, say 50%, being half of my capital locked in there for so long, how could I go through the process and how much opportunity would I lost? After all, there is no regret in stock market. The fact is, nobody will know when would a share move, just like this one, near to 50% rise in 2 days, how could one speculate this? Even tough you really look at this share all the time, the energy and time that you spent on it would not worth it too. It is impossible to know when a share will move, so the only way we can do is buy and hold. Buy before it moves. As long as you are confident with your choice, just hold.

Ironically, my portfolio seems to hint me to reduce my frequent trade in stock market -- I would expect INARI to double its price first, but at last is this "black horse", of which I've hold for so long that jump the queue. Is like telling me that as long as you are confident with a share, just hold, time will bring you the return that you deserve. I will remember this lesson. 

Now, question comes: when to sell it? I don't really have a target price for this. If really have one, I would say at least RM 0.80. But now I still don't see any reason to sell it -- this new high was broken by a record high volume too, nice chart!

Also, today the stock closed at Buy 0.595 & Sell 0.600 with a sell of 13000+ lots, i.e. a lot as compared to usual queue of 200-500 lots. I would say that this is a "fake" resistance, as most of the shares are in the big fish hand. Today high of 0.600 has only traded for 2 lots, an obvious act by retail investors. I couldn't print screen of the queue tough, after Bursa has upgraded its trading system to BTS2. It wouldn't take immediate time to break 0.600, I hope so, as this share should rest for a while now before continue moving.


Finally, some Manglish, i.e. Malaysian English. Whenever I talked to someone that I have this share, people will look at it and say:

this kind of stock can buy meh?

no volume one, how to buy?

like that need to hold how long? 

like this can earn money meh? 

Tuesday, 24 December 2013

KLSE: top up INSAS

Today INSAS was hovering between 0.89 - 0.905 for most of the time, only then to fall to 0.885 just before the market closed.

Well, I have observed the movement of this share for more than 1 month, pretty confident that 0.890 is the lowest price that the "big fish" will wash to, which is why I can accept to top up at the price of 0.895. 

Previously I have noticed how this share moved, in focused accumulation of share, I presented some of the detailed transactions while in INSAS and INGRESS, it is noticed that how similar the charts look like. So I decided to top up.


INSAS

INSAS chart

The washing process of this share is just brutal. It really tests your patience. Still, I believe that 0.885 is still fine, and from the low volume recently, this share is definitely not finished its drama. Low volume + price consolidation = wash. I believe this wash is a very big one.

Lets see how it goes.

Wednesday, 27 November 2013

观察 INSAS: 主力集中

INSAS 最近大马交易所非常一个INARI)妈妈近期突然来个拉升,接下来经典洗盘。



INSAS


11月25公布业绩,漂亮,net profit double。业绩很漂亮的结果有2种:

1.股价gap up,一去不回头
2.庄家要震仓。股价gap up,然后回调。

INSAS的主力采用的是第二种。昨天的trade detail我没有记录下来。不过我知道昨天是gap up开始,然后收阴的。gap up买入的通常是看到业绩很好然后追高的。庄家直接来一个洗盘。今天洗到很够力。洗到0.89才甘愿。看了今天交易记录,尾盘就来个拉升了。


INSAS



INSAS buy sell


观察一下。lot几千lot交易量做。价钱上,下。可见筹码多么集中!

事情已经很明显:这那么的。

INSAS的孩子INARI,昨天出业绩。q-t-q净利X3,1.5 cent股息。这业绩好得不得了。结果洗盘方法一个样:gap up开市,洗盘,让不鉴定的持票者出局,尾盘同样来个拉升:


INARI

买股票,要有耐心。整天看盘,像看到INARI这样业绩好反而下跌的,如果信心不够,胡乱猜疑,岂不是错过了会生金蛋的鹅?

Wednesday, 10 July 2013

AIRASIA 认购凭单调整详解

今天亚航 X 上市,我还特地早上开着电脑等开始。哪里知道 tony 的钱真的不是那么容易赚的。 1.26 开市,成交量第一,1.25 闭市。一点 "kang tou" 都没有得捡。sien 掉。IPO 抽中的也什么甜头都没有。根本就没有gap up。


我也顺便把 call warrant 放了。AIRASIA-CY。不敢收太久。还有3个月到期,AIRASIA 走势图其实不错,只是我不想再抱票了,怕死 kiasi


AIRASIA-CY

AIRASIA 的凭单也不少。选AIRASIA-CY就只因为成交量。那么多孩子,只有这个最有交易。溢价也不高,所以就买进了。这是第二次买入 call warrant,第一个是去年交易的,MUDAJYA-CH -- 这里。1星期亏损接近15%。

AIRASIA-CY 曾经因为AIRASIA的特别股息也调整exercise price 和 conversion ratio。本来是这样的:


Exercise Price = RM 2.85
Conversion Ratio = 4:1

因为特别股息,调整详情可以看 Bursa Malaysia AIRASIA-CY


Adjustment Factor ("AF") = (P – D) / (P) 

P exdate 闭市价。D dividend (RM 0.18)。这里 exdate 是 3月11日。那么P 就是 3月10闭市RM 3.00. 那么 AF 就是 0.94.

的 exercise price 就是AF = 2.85*0.94 = RM 2.679
 
Exercise Ratio 就是 1/AF * Exercise ratio = 1/0.94 * 1/4 = 0.26598,就是3.76:1


我买的时候 AIRASIA 母股 3.03, 算到来溢价是:

0.115*3.76 + 2.679 - 3.03 = 2.7%

不会高。gearing ratio 是 3.03/(0.115*3.76) = 7。

这一次做得不错。买得不多,这种东西,慢慢的。掌握到技巧了,以后自然可以找到机会交易。


Tuesday, 25 June 2013

KLCI 综合指数回补缺口 + 套利 PRLEXUS

2013年5月6日 KLCI 大跳空高开,一个多月以来一直都没有回补缺口。现在外围局势不稳定。今天第一次试探回补。

KLCI 缺口回补
KLCI 综合指数缺口回补?




这缺口一旦回补,技术上来说 KLCI 短期无望了。将会继续调整一段时期。如果要继续向上,这个星期里面一定要站在缺口上面,才有机会继续。如果不是,那么基本上来说短期无望挑战高点。

今天KLCI一开始就大幅下跌,过后出现倒涨的情况。没想到这次倒涨竟然是假的,过后又会下回的。所以说,还是不要整天看市好。看了情绪受影响,反而更糟糕。



KLCI Summary
25/6/2013 KLCI 一览

PRLEXUS 今天套利了。根据我的观察是继续调整或者横摆最少3个月。之前2.40的时候握住不放,结果今天才甘愿放手。再一次,我不会卖股。盈利从几天前的 30++% 变成 10%。其实也是不错的回酬。只是我还学不会放手。今天卖出也是看到短期目标达成了,而且也觉得横摆的几率很大,所以就选择拿现金了。



卖出 PRLEXUS
卖出 PRLEXUS



Friday, 12 April 2013

套利 INARI

这股必须套利了。附加股的消息出来,我价钱放太高(怎么那么贪心?),结果卖不出。今天怎样都得卖了。我没有兴趣买附加股。更重要的是,我不想抱票过投票日。




盈利来说一个Bonus。股息有 Capital Gain,持股没有2个月夫复何求?必须学会套利。卖了也是没有办法的。资金需要休息(的)。不给资金休息,跟我翻脸,不是惨?


之前有太多次死抱不放的股,让我错失了好多。 这次,无论INARI后市如何,我都不顾了。

Tuesday, 12 March 2013

再吃回头草 -- PHARMA

一段时间没有公开自己的交易了。今天吃了回头草,就放上来。


PHARMA 是我的旧爱,就算不是因为他曾经为我带来不错的回报,他的生意也是我很喜欢的 - 做药。我相信这是高成长的公司,股息不错,大股东有多数票。这是我长期投资的目标之一。

 
 
 
我不想因为3 cent的价差,而失去这个机会。所以最后还是把价钱出高一点算了。
 
 
值得注意的是。最后一分钟,全部seller的价钱怎么不见了?4点出的时候还可以看到 7.94 7.95 7.96 7.98 7.99的,竟然全部不见,变成 5th best sell price 8.39?? 这意味着什么?以过往的经验,这种加码离开很大的seller,要发作之时时间问题而已!
 
 
 
 
 



Thursday, 7 March 2013

洗盘也是进场时机

离上次大阳烛是第8天,过后股价横摆7天,昨天低量,今天早上我排了2个价位就去上班了。才留意这股没有1个星期,庄家的pattern都看完了。喜欢早上洗盘,下午来量拉升。


庄家其实也是散户一个低价进场时机。只要应用当,短期10%回报不是问题。时机正确,短期往往就是1-2星期。1-2星期有10%回报已经很好很好成绩了。



排队至少2价位重要性。至少几率比较高。而且就是买个平均价。中一个比较价钱,至少收。上次BJFOOD太过吝啬 《BJFOOD》,没有买到,这次总算搭上一班列车。


这股买价漂亮,很开心。

目标价:1.80-2.00