Showing posts with label Technical. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Technical. Show all posts

Thursday, 23 June 2016

The consequence of stock market speculation

I have transacted more than 30 times last month, the highest in my history.

It all started with MISC, when it dropped 13% per day despite a good quarter report. I saw an opportunity coming the next day of the plunge: a chance of rebound. MISC has fundamentals. The daily chart is out of BB lower band. These two features satisfy my rules to catch a rebound. The feeling of securing a return of 20% intraday is so good.

MISC plunge


For a long time I have not earned like this in a single day. My next unconscious reaction is to continue speculation. I started to buy in stocks without even looking at the fundamentals and technical chart. KANGER and LSTEEL, just to name a few. I did not have solid grounds like I bought MISC call warrants. I just thought that luck will be on my side, and I can continue winning just like that. But once again, how unbelievably, I vomit out all earnings.

Only then I realised that the more I trade, the more I lose. 
Only then I realised that winning is the beginning of losing.
Only then I realised that my thought of playing stocks has ended up getting played by stocks.

After all, my best strategy is to hold for a few months. In the mean time, wait patiently for any opportunity of "fast money". If this kind of opportunity comes every week or fortnight, it is probably good enough to generate a considerable extra income.

Tuesday, 8 December 2015

KL: The consequence of betting on quarterly report

This article was written entirely based on experience.

I like to bet on quarterly financial reports. The idea is simple. At the end of every month (esp. Feb, May, Aug and Nov) is the due date for companies to announce their quarterly reports. I like to buy in few weeks before the report was announced, such that if the report is good, the share will jump, snapping potential profit in short time.

However, this method of "playing" stocks seems to be tumbling this year. For whatever company that I bet on a good report, the opposite happened: share plunged after the reported was announced, causing losses.

PRIVA is the first example. I accumulated this counter in the beginning of May.  That is very naive of me. The result was announced on 28-5-2015 and it was a normal one, with a profit slightly less than the year-to-year quarter. On the next trading day, the share dropped 8%+. I cut loss not long after that. This has cost me 27% in less than 1 month.

The second experience is SIGN. This was mentioned before in a mistake on SIGN.  Because SIGN is an export counter, I was hoping that with the depreciation of MYR, I could profit from a good financial report.

SIGN is much more extreme. The very same thing happened twice! In Aug, the share plunged nearly 15% on the next day after the announcement. I lost the bet which cost me 25% in 2 weeks.

Not long after that, the share went up to the level before the announcement of Aug report. This gives an impression that the company is doing good in the coming quarter. However, the report which was announced at the end of Nov wasn't good as all. On the next day, SIGN plunged 15% for the second time.



SIGN drop after financial report


The third is GOB.

Prior to the announcement, the share has a big white candle, which of course I am very happy. I entranced in my own aspirations, as I always do. Then the company reported a loss. The next day GOB dropped 8.8%. This cost me to vomit out all profit.


GOB dropped after financial report


These examples may just be the tip on the iceberg. From these examples, it seemed that buying just before the quarterly report is no longer working, at least for small-cap companies. Looking at this trend, somewhere, someone seems to have the seer-like ability to predict in advanced.

Maybe there isn't any conspiracy theory, the company really wasn't performing.

Maybe there is a conspiracy theory, that the company manipulated the fiscal report such that a bad result was portrayed to wash out retail investors. If this is true, does it imply that holding a share for more than 3 months is not a good idea?

A very interesting trend is unfolding in KLSE.

Wednesday, 25 November 2015

KL: Aiming Solution Engineering

Solution Engineering (KLSE: SOLUTN) is a listed company in Bursa Malaysia. The company manufactures laboratory-scale equipment for (tertiary) education and research purposes. The product covers a wide range of research field, including heat transfer, separation processes, process control etc.

I understand that a number of universities purchase their lab-scale equipment from this company, both local and overseas university. University of Malaya is an example. When I did my bachelor and saw the company logo on the lab-scale equipment, I did a brief study on it. At that time the company was losing money continuously, so I have little interest in it. Had it not because of "Cold Eye" (an investment expert in Malaysia) who accumulated this counter, I believe it will continue to remain undiscovered. He now owns 4.92% of company share, which is just shy of the 5% where the investor is required to report to Bursa Malaysia as a substantial shareholder.

Last week, the share jumped with high volume followed by low volume adjustment. I noticed it has the typical movement that I was looking for, similar to INARI not long ago.



The steps are the same:

1. Price soared with high volume
2. Adjustment with low volume
3. Buy in

As simple as that.

During the adjustment process, the lowest traded price will usually be higher than the price before soaring (i.e., RM 0.395 in this case). However, yesterday it has gone down to RM 0.390. I would like to observe for a few more days before making a decision.

Sunday, 8 November 2015

KL: Buy back INARI's son

A good horse will not turn back to eat the old grass (direct translation from a Chinese proverb 好马不吃回头草). This is true for a good horse. However, I am certainly not one of the good one.

INARI, my old buddy which I have sold Oct 2014 during the big drop -- a pain when looking back. Ridiculously, I targeted RM 2.70 (before the second right issue ex) at the time of buying. I went up to as high as RM 3.30 (before ex) and I didn't sell. It wasn't until the big drop that I finally sold at a price well below my target price. This happened before, and history has repeated itself.

Anyway,INARI price soared with volume recently:

INARI

This is a very nice pattern, so I follow these steps that I used to do:

1. Price soared with high volume
2. If got adjustment, wait for it and adjustment must come with low volume
3. Buy in after a few trading days


As simple as that.

I intended to buy INARI-CW. But looking at INARI-CW, only CI and CJ have some "attractive features". However, I ended up buying INARI-WB as CI and CJ cannot play:

1.CI banker's is a scrooge, queuing only 500 lot for each price bid! **

**Conspiracy theory: I know conspiracy theory is a cliché nowadays, but could this imply that the banker has no confidence to earn money from this CW, hence the low volume queue?

2. CJ itself has "acceptable" volume for each price bid, but nobody trades it, hence no volume. CW with no volume -- cannot play.

INARI, I am back by buying your son!

Sunday, 2 August 2015

KL: KLCI technical analysis

KLCI is really weak recently. Trying to earn money from KLCI lately has been challenging. Regardless of what shares you are trading, the index is still the most important benchmark in KLSE as it determines the general trend of the market. How is it doing? Let's examine this from the monthly, weekly and daily charts.

1. Monthly chart:

KLCI monthly chart

Monthly chart does not look good. MACD and stochastic are heading negative. The last candle, July 2015, was primarily due to the last trading day where KLCI was pulled up by 23 points. Was this a sign just to draw a "nice" chart or is it that KLCI is ready to go? It has 3 black candles followed by one white candle where similar trends have been observed in 2008 and 2011. While 2008 was a real bear, 2011 was an adjustment. Which way will it go this time?  Only time can tell. 

2. Weekly chart:

KLCI weekly chart

Weekly chart looks a bit nicer. The chart looks like forming a double bottom. All MACD, RSI and stochastic seems to recover from the bottom. However, no sign of strength was observed.

3. Daily chart:


Daily chart cannot tell much. Chart shows KLCI seems to have "triple bottom" recently. MACD, RSI and stochastic are heading positive, but the trend in daily chart can change very abruptly.

A lot of rumours say that if the PM were to step down, it will lead to political instability and chaos (as in the stock market) would ensue. I couldn't be bother about this factor. Partly because I don't think he will step down; and partly also because who knows which way will the stock market go if he really steps down?

While a number of investors do not look good on the current market, I still yet to spot a "madness" in the stock market. After all, standing at 1723 is less than a 10% drop from the peak of 1890+. Is that really bad? But perhaps the drop occurs successively due to the involatility of the KLCI, it felt as if the drop has been long and significant. My view is that while bear has not yet formed, the chance of "final bull" remains unclear. The way to deal with this is as always: prudent investment involving good fundamental stock.

Monday, 4 May 2015

KLSE: A failed short term trade in AWC

AWC is definitely a failed short term trade. I could have earned a profit of 10% in 2 days, but at the end of the day I ended up losing 10%.

This time, not only my entry price is beautiful, my timing is perfect too.

AWC


I did set a target at the time of buying, i.e. 10% short term trading. This implies a target price of RM 0.490-0.495. The target price is achieved after 2 trading days, I did not sell. A target without strict execution is useless.

Greed has crept in my mind and I "suddenly" decided to increase my target price. While I keep on reminding myself to not make the same mistake, greed has also buried my previous experience.


I do not know what to say, but hoping that I could at least take this lesson seriously.

Monday, 30 March 2015

KLSE: Sell SHH

I started collecting SHH since May 2014. This process went on until September. I once said that SHH is another INGRESS. This is why I can hold it "tightly" even during the "adjustment" (some people called it small bear) in Oct and Dec 2014, because I have confidence in SHH.

The waiting has paid off. All returns comes in 2 weeks time. But the money has stuck there for 10 months. Maybe I shouldn't ask for more. Considering the whole period, the return is still stellar.

I actually wanted to wait for "open flip" (i.e. 100% return). But the price shot up too abruptly, causing the candle to be out of the upper BB band. This always followed by a pull back, with no exception to any stock.

SHH


Today SHH opened high at 1.56, reached a high of 1.58 and closed at 1.44. A clear adjustment sign is coming. I didn't watch the market at the opening, but soon after the market opened I realized that maybe I should have a look at SHH. It opened high, and I know that I should sell it no matter how. I sold all my shares between 1.50-1.53 in the morning, a decision that looks to be correct at least from now.

This does not mean that SHH will stop like that. A typical trend would be adjusting for a few days (which nobody knows), and then continue its uptrend. Depending on the situation, perhaps I will buy back at a lower price.

I am delighted to have made the right decision. The main reason is, of course, a pull back is inevitable and imminent. The second reason is, I've found another share to buy.

Sunday, 15 March 2015

KLSE: SKPETRO, another downtrend

Crude oil price has been plummeting in the past few months. It has made wide coverage in all kinds of media.  The reason?  All others reasons reported on the media, e.g. over supply, decrease in demand are excuses. Except manipulation, give me a reason how a commodity price can drop 50% in 3 months. The motive? Ask Wall Street.

I couldn't care less about crude oil prices, it has nothing to do with me at the moment. Anyway, I was planning to buy SKPETRO (a component stock in KLCI) in Jan. Back then, the crude oil price was trading at about USD 50/ barrel (I used Brent Crude Oil as reference). Looking back in Dec 2014, that was the most "scary" sentiment you could find in market at that time. Everybody was talking about oil price could go even lower, that the market will crash etc.

The most funny view regaring this that I have ever heard of, is a so-called "financial analyst" who was "sharing his opinion" on the TV during the business section of a news programme. He said that in 2008, there was a subprime mortgage crisis, maybe in 2015 we will have the "subprime crude oil crisis". I really LOL when I heard this, simply because of the fact that if a crash is really coming, would the media let you know earlier?

I do not buy any of these comments. So, I was queuing for SKPETRO, hoping for a rebound. My rationale is simple, I don't believe it can go further down to USD 45/ barrel; but if the oil price rebounds, SKPETRO will follow.

BrentCruideOil Price
(Picture print-screened from Nasdaq.com)

But my queue didn't match at that time. Soon after that, oil price has rebounded  (recover?)  to over USD 60 . And SKPETRO follows the trend, climbing nearly 50% in 2 months.

SKPETRO rebound


I don't like to chase high. So I thought OK, it is what it is, seeking for another opportunity. But then, on 4th Mar, an announcement was released, regarding the designation of a vice chairman. Had he been any other person, the impact would be minimal. But the person of interest in this case has a last name of Mahathir, so you know his influence. The next trading day, SKPETRO dropped 7.2% with volume. Last Friday, crude oil price plunged 4%. Does this imply another wave of oil drop is coming?

This may be a second chance for me to enter. My patience has really paid-off. This time my appetite has gone bigger. I am aiming at C12 (SKPETRO has good fundamental), a new call warrant by CIMB, with the nicest exercise price, lowest premium and 1 year maturity date. But the trend of SKPETRO is not looking good. So I am just looking at a short term rebound trade. If SKPETRO breaks RM 2.00 and going further down, what I will be aiming is a big drop with volume, and that may be a chance to catch for a rebound.

Thursday, 9 October 2014

2014 Q3 Review

Return: +4.5% vs KLCI -1.9% (3 months)

Transactions: 3

 1. Sell PNE
I've been holding this share for 1.5 years. Not a bad return. Fortunately I have enough patience to wait for it. Thanks PNE. But one thing I must remember is that luck is an important factor. Who knows if it wouldn't move until 3 or 5 years? So I am really happy with this transaction.

2. Sell INSAS
This share has been grueling to me, finally cannot tahan (cannoot stand) and Sell INSAS. I don't have the patience that I have for PNE. Maybe one day in the future I will return, who knows?

3. Buy GHL
I love this transaction. This brings back me the "feeling" of short-term trading. I used to have this feeling, but the experience seems to disappear when I indulge myself too much in the stock market. Luckily I've regained this "feeling". Needless to say more, look at the chart:


9-9-2014: gap up with volume. I refrained from chasing high.

10-9-2014 to 18-9-2014: consolidation with low volume. I observed the movement. Telling myself that my target entry price will be around RM 1.05. Why? Because the closing price before gap up is RM 1.04. A "sincere" consolidation process shouldn't go below RM 1.04.

17-9-2014 already went down to RM 1.03, is in my entry price. But I did not look at the stock market on that day.

18-9-2014 I have something to do in the morning. Wait until I look at the price was already trading at RM 1.07. I didn't budge on the entry price this time. I queued for RM 1.05 and I just do my own thing. And it did match after that. I enjoyed an immediate return in a short time. What more could I ask for?

This is the trading style that I am looking at: wait for consolidation, find an entry price, do not chase high. Just let it happens its own way. If the transaction is not matched, just look for other opportunity. 

Saturday, 26 July 2014

KLSE: Thanks PNE, Bye PNE

My first entry price is 0.295. At that time, the relevance for me to hold a share which is not making profit is the cash/share > share price:

Total share: 65.7 M
Total cash (@ 30/9/2013): 24.2 M
Cash/share = RM 0.37

RM 0.295/share to buy a share that has a cash/share of RM 0.37, too good to be true, isn't it?

When the share went up to RM 0.60, I am still holding it. I convinced myself that the relevance now is the NTA price of RM 0.94. That the share is traded at a price well lower than its NTA/share. So I still holding that.

When it went up to RM 1.10, I keep holding. This is where all relevance turns into irrelevance, all rationality becomes irrationality. There is no fundamentals to support this share at this price. Yet I even think of waiting the share to flip twice (i.e. 300% return). But when volume comes, I know that it is time to sell, regardless of what's going to happen next.

Looking back, the price movements come in 4 rounds. I am surprise that I can wait until the 4th round. I might have still kept holding it,  had it not been the candle on 2nd July 2014, where the volume is just too scary for me:

PNEPCB


I felt a sense of freedom after selling. And I know that is a correct decision to have some cash on hand.

P/S:
This company has some direct business transactions recently, and it involved a large amount of shares:

26 June 2014: 5M shares dispose through direct business transaction.
1 July 2014:  14M of shares  dispose through direct business transaction. (gee, this is substantial considering that the total share is only 65.7M) 

And recently many patterns come out, change in boardroom, change in director's interest etc: PNEPCB announcement 

The price for direct deal is RM 1.10, which is higher than the current market price. I do not know what is the intention. And there is no point dwelling into the reason, cause you will never know what is going on.

The important thing is: I am free from it. That's it.

Thursday, 10 July 2014

KLSE: CSL chart says it all

Few months ago I wrote something about is low PE shares attractive?

Interestingly, I mentioned CSL in that post. At that time (Jan 2014), it was traded at about RM 0.80.

Today, this share is traded at about RM 0.10. A picture says a thousand words: CSL weekly chart.



You know what happen by looking at the announcement. I am not going to say much about this.

Saturday, 14 June 2014

NYSE: AMD analysis

AMD shares closed with 2 white candles with relatively high volume on 10 and 11 June. On these two days, there is no apparent reasons why the shares moved with volume. One day later, the news revealed.

Headline: AMD reorganizes (MarketWatch) which states the plan of the company to consolidate some of its business segments and appointed a new chief operating officer. Another news concerns about its rival, Intel (INTC) which loses appeal against record $1.43 billion EU fine (MarketWatch). I think AMD didn't earn any money from this, but morally, is a good news that push AMD share.

On 12 June, the share opened higher @ 4.33, trading high @ 4.44, but closed @ 4.29. A newbie technical chart:


The share has just broken its upper Bollinger Band (BB), with volume. This is a good sign for the share price. A black candle on 12 Jun, could it be a "washing" process? Not sure, still fumbling in US markets. Let's see what happens in the next few weeks.

Back in 2006, AMD bought over ATI (Engadget), a big move by the company at that time. Since then, the company has shaped its future direction, to combine a CPU with graphics technology into one single chip, known as APU (Accelerated Processing Unit). I like this idea. By now, more and more APUs are being installed on laptops, easily observed when you walk into a computer shop. In gaming console areas, XBox One is using AMD APUs too. You can find chips made by AMD in personal computers, tablets, game consoles and cloud servers as well.


If the direction of APU is right, it could be very rewarding in years to come. 

Tuesday, 29 April 2014

KLSE: Top up CHHB

It has been some time since I posted my last transaction, but it doesn't mean that I did not buy or sell in these periods.

Today I queue RM 1.55 for CHHB, a share by guazi in Investalks.


CHHB transaction



Why would I buy this share? 

The chart is beautiful, is very much like INGRESS lasty year:  Why would I buy INGRESS? Price up within short time, then price consolidation with low volume, to "wash out" contra and uncertain shareholders.




Why is it 1.55?  

Well, first of all I am very "prudent" in buying something, including stocks. I wouldn't pay full price for something - a typical Malaysian style, and will always bargain: 

kurang sikit boleh tak? (Malay)

eh kah kiam oh? (Hokkien)

不能再便宜了meh? (Mandarin) 

can you give a better price? (English) 

So I will feel reluctant to even queuing for RM 1.56.

Secondly, 1.55 is the lowest price since 21/4/2014. Because at that day there was a slight movement in the stock with volume. I believe this is a relatively safe entry price.  

Target price - No target price. If volume come and I find a better chance, then I will change.  

Sunday, 16 March 2014

KLSE: INARI price soars, transferring to Main Market?

Last time when I wrote something about target price reached, where to?

My target price was RM 1.71, but now the share price stood at RM 2.27. I didn't make any transaction, as I found no reason to sell this share.  The decision is correct, at least, until now.

Last Friday, INARI volume was relatively higher - not a good sign. As volume comes, I would choose to go. The price has increased ceaselessly over the past two weeks. Seeing the share price soars day by day, I am very excited at first, but soon the feeling changed.

INARI


I found myself to be even greedier than ever: when my portfolio sees an earning that has never appeared before, I found myself to be even more unsatisfied. I want to see EVEN more profits. Is this human nature, of the more you have, the more unsatisfied you will be, or is this just about my boundless greed? I guess, in some sense, that this is part of human nature, a weakness that can be improved, but not eradicated.

Anyway, I believe the movement in the past two weeks is strongly related to the news regarding transfer from ACE market to main market. It has been more than two months since the application has been made on 10 Jan 2014.

It breaks new high everyday, sky is the only limit. I have no more target price for this share, will only watch and see what happens, only to decide what to do next.

Thursday, 13 February 2014

KLSE: without a target price, what triggers a sell?

I top up pne two weeks ago, during the washing period, a very good chance to top up: steady price with low volume. My top up price isn't that beautiful, because at the end of Jan when US market plunged 2%+ in a day, it came down to as low as 0.490. That day causes quite a shock in global market, but the heavy selling abates few days after that.

Today has proven that my top up decision was right - 28%+ a day, where to find such a huge return in one day?

I observed very carefully during the trading hours. This is a very good chance to see how the big fish push up a stock. At 0.700, there is a very obvious washing process - last for a good 10 minutes before continuing buy up.

When the queue is:

Buy Qty   Buy       Sell    Sell Qty
   100     0.700     0.705   200

Then sell down transaction will occur, either traded in 27 followed by 73, or 100 lot in a single transaction. This will result in:

Buy Qty   Buy       Sell    Sell Qty
   XXX     0.695     0.700   200 (or 100)

Then the 200 ( or 100 lots) of 0.700 will be eaten in a minute again. And then the same scenario repeat for 10 minutes at 0.700, to create volume. I do not know the intention of this, but clearly, the big fish holds most of the share. This phenomenon is observed at other prices as well, but not that obvious.



A very beautiful trade detail, showing a strong buy rate of 82%, this is extremely high! With today KLCI sentiment, this share is just too strong. The volume is beautiful, but is a little bit huge already?



1000 lots of buy volume - I have never seen this happened in this share, something must be coming very soon? All buy up transactions, showing how strong is this share although the market is going down today.

What I am worry is the huge volume today. But the candle is very good though. I still doesn't have any target price for this, kind of losing direction in selling.

If tomorrow is a big gap up, I would run.
If tomorrow continue rising, I would see until which point it will go. Perhaps sell half?
If tomorrow small volume, forget about it.

Hopefully my previous experience learned from stock market will help in making the decision this time.

Wednesday, 29 January 2014

Put options fundamentals: part 2 (end)

21 Jan 2014 is the fiscal date for AMD, announcing the financial results for Q4 2013. US companies are given one month to announce financial results, while Malaysia companies are given 2 months. The environment in Malaysia is really "senang" (relax), typical Malaysian style, I like it.

For the year 2013, AMD suffers a net loss of 83M or loss per share of $0.11. Refer to NYSE Press Release for details.


On 22 Jan 2014, AMD gap down with huge volume, after announcing a worse-than-expected financial results. Oh, this is the same as in Malaysia too. Gap down after a bad financial result, as what happended to ZHULIAN recently.

AMD chart
AMD Chart

AMD put options Jan wk 4 2014
AMD Put Option @  $4, Jan wk 4 2014


Put options has opposite trend against the mother share. As AMD price goes down, put options will have a higher value, and vice versa, as shown in the above figure.

24 Jan 2014 is the expiration day for this option. Both NYSE and NASDAQ suffered losses of about 2%, quite a huge loss in single day. AMD closed at $3.47, well below the strike price of $4. Since the price is below the strike price, put options buyer will definitely exercise his/her rights to sell
the share @ $4 to me. (e.g. imagine you hold an insurance policy (options buyer), that accident happens to you some day (touch wood), for sure you will claim from the insurance company (options seller))

put options exercised

Last row shows my sell transaction, that the premium I gained.
2nd row shows that AMD share was assigned to me @ $4/share. I have to buy it at this price. Since the mother share is trading @ $3.47, this means that I incur a loss of 0.53*1000 = 530 IMMEDIATELY.
1st row is to close my options position.

This means that my net loss in this trade is: 190-530 = -$340

If, say, I do not want to hold AMD share. I can opt to buy the put options to close my position. The put options closed at $ 0.56 on 24 Jan 2016. This means that I have to pay 0.56*1000 = 560 to buy back the put options.

In this case, my net loss is 190 - 560 = -$370

Is almost LPPL (i.e. almost the same). Of course, seeing that AMD plunged few days before the expiry date, I could have bought the put options to close my positions way earlier, to limit my loss. Another choice is to hold AMD until it recovers. But the catch for this is that my money will be locked in the share. Whatever decisions to make is dependent heavily on the capital, and this must be determined before executing the transaction.  

Friday, 24 January 2014

Is low PE shares attractive?

In the stock market you must have some principles that can never be violated. e.g. never buy PN17 company, some people never touch technology shares, some people never touch shares with price < RM 0.10 etc. I have my own too, I will never touch a category of stocks. The table below says enough:


China stock in Malaysia


Look at XINQUAN, an earning of 30 cent ++ per year, but only traded at about RM 1? If this happens to only 1 share, then a closer look is required, perhaps it is really undervalued? But with so many "similar" stocks together, I doubt if they are undervalued.

Look at XDL recently:



3 months + of accumulation and selling. After profit is secured, all shares are thrown without any hesitation. With this kind of volume, I believe there is no way this share can go up to RM 0.60 again, at least for few years. (although with an EPS of 11 cent). The company did make an announcement regarding this: price movementBelieve it or not is up to you.

Another example: CSL, a not-long-ago listed on Bursa stock, doing stationery.

CSL

It was first listed nearly 2 years ago, with an IPO price of RM 0.95. It went up to RM 1.80 within 2 months, can be easily seen in top volume at that time. People will easily get into the trap, because people cannot tahan (cannot see) seeing a share keep on increasing. Then what after that? The price keep on dropping until now, to RM 0.80!

I touched once before during my 1st year in stock market.. It cost me 40%+ of loss in 8 months, I am lucky that I cut lost at that time, a wise move even if I look back now. This is a priceless experience, preventing me from further losses in stock market.

Bursa Malaysia investors, open up your wise eyes when choosing company.

Sunday, 19 January 2014

Target price reached, where to?

Where to, is a verbal short form of English, meaning where are you heading to? what is next? etc.

Selling a share has always been a difficult task, much more difficult that buying. But if a person has no greed, is not that hard actually though. It is hard mainly because of greed, earn money then not satisfied, want more.

One of my rule to selling a stock is that target price has been achieved. From my previous experience, I never feel satisfied even my target price was reached. It doesn't bring me any good at the end. After that, I told myself to at least sell a portion of shares, locking the profit. But now I didn't deliver what I've learnt before.

I try finding excuses for this, e.g. because the graph is so beautiful, how to sell? Historical high, nice volume, how to sell? Like that cannot sell lah.


inari


So? See first lah. Now I set a higher target price and see what happens.

The financial market is really a good reflection of ourselves. When the decision point comes, it is a good time to see how if emotion(greedy) or rationale (sensible) prevails. Anyway, this is a good lesson for me, another chance to see what should I do when the target price comes.

Tuesday, 7 January 2014

2013 review: part 4

I changed to INARI. This was quite a hot share in KLSE in 2013. This share has something to do with me. It was first listed on 19 July 2011, where I treated it as "one night stand", i.e. only hold for 1 day and sell.

In Feb 2013, I suddenly thought of it, and observe and took profit  not long after that. I bought it back later, this is very unusual for me, I don't usually bought back a share which the price is higher than then price that I've sold. But I don't want to regret anymore. Then, I hold it until now.

Since I've mentioned this share, let me share my view on it. Few weeks back, some in the Investalks forum said that the financial report look suspicious, especially from the cash flow side. I am not an expert in this, so can't comment about it. Technically, I found no reason to sell this share at this point.

INARI


Look at the graph:

All circle regions, i.e. pulling period were accompanied by big volume. Whenever there is a relatively high volume, the candle will be big white. And it doesn't move non-stop, instead, it move up steadily, move and rest, move and adjust. During adjustment, volume are small. 

Then, 3 vertical lines shows that whenever a white candle came, the volume is relatively higher. No exception.

This graph is just beautiful, so why sell it at this point? More importantly, I am really looking forward for my 1st "kai fan" share, i.e. a share that double its price.

I am very fortunate to have swifted to this share, and hold it until now.

[to be continued]

Saturday, 4 January 2014

2013 review: part 3

I bought and wait, repeating this for several shares, until I realized that I have lost enough -- lost all earning from the beginning of this year. The last mistake I made was MAYBULK-CI -- ALL IN. When would I think of all in a call warrant in a normal situation? I do know how risky it is to all in call warrant, but I just wanted something back at that time. Kind of revenge, wasn't it?

I started collecting the CW in July, and finished all my cash in August - hoping that I can turn the table in one hit - too naive! Not long after that, world stock market "crashed", or more correctly if looking back now, adjusted. So did KLCI, it has no privilege against the world stock market.

KLCI august chart


MAYBULK is not like NESTLE or BAT, is not a defensive stock. So it followed KLCI pattern. 

Maybulk-CI


On 22 Aug 2013, KLCI opened with a gap, downwards. I decided to cut loss early in the morning - a right decision finally. For several consecutive days, Maybulk-CI went down to as low as 0.135, which I was fortunate. But not long after that, it climbed back to the price I sold, even went to as high as 0.325. While it may seem that if I hold until then, I could have earned some money, but I wouldn't sell even it is 0.325 though - my greed has no bounds. This is something I need to improve.

Maybulk-CI expired on 6 Dec 2013, at the same price that I have sold. Even if I hold until the end, it doesn't cost me to lose more in terms of capital, but it does cost me to lose time opportunity, a very important cost in the stock market - I could have switched share and manage to secure some earning, which I did.


[to be continued]